While Germany is heading for another government-in-waiting, the problems in France are weighted entirely differently.
When Macron was appointed President of the Republic in 2017, a general sense of relief could be heard. Fortunately, not Le Pen!
The new president immediately exuded a spirit of optimism, he set about reforms, wanted to renew the European Union. Not much has remained of this. There was considerable resistance to his plans within the EU, and the ongoing uprisings of the yellow waistcoats have shown that French resentment towards politicians has reached new dimensions.
And then there was Corona.
While the government is struggling to keep the virus and the discontent of the population in check, Marine Le Pen is appearing for discussions, in prime time, with the French Minister of the Interior. That the latter accuses Le Pen on occasion of being too lenient (!) with Islam is evidence of the tense attitude in the country.
The pandemic should gradually lose its horror in the course of this year, but to what extent society and the economy will return to a more orderly course remains to be seen. Unlike in Germany, where the elections are still taking place amid a tidal wave of state aid and special schemes to prop up domestic firms, in France they are likely to take place in the subsequent phase of economic recalibration.
If there are major problems here, Le Pen has a realistic chance of winning the 2022 presidential election.