The relations between Erdogan´s Turkey and Putin´s Russia are among the most interesting in current world-affairs. Either part is threatening the vital interests of the other one, in special in the Caucasus and in Syria, but, through a diplomacy of balance, they nontheless manage to both strengthen their positions in relation to third powers involved. This happened in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
The relations between Iran and Turkey today are somewhat similar. Strategic intersections between them also existing in Syria and the Caucasus, as well as in northern Iraq and at the shores of the red see. And in Lebanon.
While the Iran, via Hizbollah, is able to somewhat control the schiite south and east of the country, Turkey is clearly preparing to engage itself in the sunni dominated north. Outside the capital and melting-pot Beyrouth, the lines between the areas of one confession compared to the areas of the other one are relatively (relatively…) clear cuttet.
In other words, the preconditions for a similar diplomacy of balance between Turkey and Iran are given. This gives both of them the opportunity to slide the cedar-republik into spheres of influence without risking to much of a confrontation. That the strategic versed persians are able to perform this kind of politics is obvious, especially given the fact that they would hold the are of the Beeka-Valley at the border to Syria.
That leaves just alone the question of the third partie involved, fighting for the Christians and Druses.
Simon Dierich 