Lebanon can hardly be seen as a full-scale state. To powerful are several militias, too little interest is there from the political and economical elites. Foreign countries taken more and more responsabilities of the state, NGO´s, United Nations and Western nations, neighbors from Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Where will this destruction of the state leads to?
A weird spectacle
During the last days, we were able to see a remarkable play. Embassadors from France and the US meet with representatives from Saudi Arabia to discuss of Lebanon. Members of that country itself? Nowhere to be seen.
Nobody has the feeling that the elites of this country will be able to play any significant role to help it. To stop inflation, save the army from disorder, or simply form a government.
This leads to different powers looking for ways to influence the country in a way that they prefer.
The Players
Iran will continue to support Hezbollah, but won´t help them to grab power over the whole country. The Christians and Sunnis would fight against that, and it´s a great burden to be responsable for such a country.
France and the US, as representatives of the West, want to prevend new waves of refugees, keep the country somehow going and maintain peace for Israel.
Turkey will try to act according to its new role as the supreme power of the Sunnis wants to have a feet in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Cause who knows what alliances we may see tomorrow?
Saudi Arabia doesn´t seem to have an interest to stay in the country, but is pushed in this direction by Paris and Washington. What will be the benefit for the country? Probably they will „receive“ it in a different area than Lebanon.
Anything else?
Syria is to weak to intervene this time. Israel is happy as long as they don´t have to fight a war, and as Iran wants to make a „deal“ with the USA, Hezbollah won´t attack anybody in the South. Egypt tries to get back on the global stage, but is way to weak to be involved at the moment. And Qatar is alway involved, is always causing some headaches, and will finally not be a decisive factor.
No winner – but one big looser
As uncertain the future may be, the Lebanese elite will lose supremacy in its own country, that´s more and more certain every single day.
Simon Dierich 