While the new era of a second great cold war was initiated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the world is still forming itself in light of this new constellation. While Russia, the northern part of the Eurasian landmass, is fighting in its neighboring country, Europe on the West and the US-allies in the east… Continue reading The Independent South
Tehran and Moscow
While the whole world is staring at Ukraine and wondering what will happen next, the Kremlin is also active outside its weak neighbor. One of the most interesting chapters may be the relationship between Russia and Iran, two of the great powers of the Eurasian continent, which are trying to rebalance their always complicated relations.… Continue reading Tehran and Moscow
A Colonie – but for whom?
Lebanon can hardly be seen as a full-scale state. To powerful are several militias, too little interest is there from the political and economical elites. Foreign countries taken more and more responsabilities of the state, NGO´s, United Nations and Western nations, neighbors from Arabia, Turkey and Iran. Where will this destruction of the state leads… Continue reading A Colonie – but for whom?
A Chance for Cairo – a Threat for Tehran?
Towards the East?
Lebanon was, for most of its history, oriented towards the West, the Mediterranean and later the european nations. Could it be, that in times of a rising China and an expansionary Iran, the country will change it focuse and looks in the East instead? Should Iran be capable to fulfill its dream and gonne establish… Continue reading Towards the East?
The Arabs’ missed Opportunity
The Price of Rapprochement
The US under President Joe Biden is currently trying to reach a new agreement with Iran and the other countries involved in the previous so-called Iran Agreement. This is causing a number of geopolitical shifts across the region and also some problems for the US. Some of the US's closest allies during the Trump administration… Continue reading The Price of Rapprochement
The Strategy of maximum Pressure
Under the Trump administration, a strategy of "maximum pressure" was frequently pursued. The concept behind this was to force another party to react in a certain way through various, but almost always economic, measures. This was coupled with Trump's instinctive feel for his counterpart's weak points. Towards the US allies, the approach consisted in particular… Continue reading The Strategy of maximum Pressure
The Power of the Conservatives
In addition to these weaknesses of the reform-oriented forces, the strong position of power of the more radical faction also plays a major role. The country's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who is both head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, politically dates back to the time of the revolution. He has been in… Continue reading The Power of the Conservatives
Elections in Iran
On 18 June 2021, the Islamic Republic of Iran will hold presidential elections. The reform-oriented forces are likely to have a difficult time. After Hassan Rouhani, a president who himself started as a reformer, has been in office since 2013, the conservative and radical foreign policy faction now sees itself in the stronger position. There… Continue reading Elections in Iran